RussiaBottom Line
Investors should increase exposure to Russian IT companies focused on import substitution and artificial intelligence, leveraging the sector's 14% revenue growth and expanding government support. However, it is necessary to reduce positions in corporate application software providers vulnerable to replacement by agentic AI, and instead favor developers of secure infrastructure solutions and platforms for the public sector.
Key Developments
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Russia's IT industry grew by 14% in 2025, outpacing global rates — the hardware market volume also increased, confirming sustained demand for domestic infrastructure. Portfolio implication: Increase the share in companies involved in the production of server and network equipment, as well as system integrators benefiting from corporate IT budgets.
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The government expanded the list of companies eligible for simplified IT accreditation and tax benefits — criteria for state-owned companies were adjusted, and accreditation confirmation deadlines were extended to 2026. Portfolio implication: Expect an influx of new issuers to the market and increased sector transparency; bet on small and medium-sized IT firms that will gain access to benefits.
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Gartner: Agentic AI threatens $234 billion in corporate application software spending — analysts recommend that Russian vendors integrate agentic capabilities and transition to business-outcome-based pricing. Portfolio implication: Reduce or hedge positions in companies specializing in traditional corporate software (ERP, CRM, BPM) without built-in AI. Increase the weight of AI platform and Low-code solution developers.
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Ozon announced the launch of its own brokerage service, "Ozon Investments," in fall 2026 — the service will be integrated into Ozon Bank and provide access to stocks, bonds, and investment products. Portfolio implication: Consider the long-term growth of Ozon's ecosystem through a financial super-app; an expanding customer base could positively impact the parent company's commission income.
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The Ministry of Digital Development announced a new selection of cloud software for the import substitution program — it will determine vendors that will receive government support and access to the public sector. Portfolio implication: Monitor the publication of the list of selected companies — inclusion in the registry will be a strong catalyst for shares of cloud software developers (PaaS, SaaS) and could lead to a sector revaluation.
Sector Pulse
| Indicator | Assessment | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| News Flow | High | Rising |
| Sentiment | Bullish | Improving |
| Policy Environment | Supportive | Easing |
| Key Theme | Import substitution and AI transformation | — |
Risk Watch
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Threat of agentic AI to the corporate software market — Gartner's recommendation indicates a potential decline in demand for traditional application software; trigger: the emergence of affordable AI agents from Russian or foreign vendors. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
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Tougher penalties for data breaches — from July 7, 2026, new fines of up to 700,000 rubles for uncertified authorization methods come into effect; in 2025, 739 incidents involving 1.34 billion records were recorded. Probability: High. Impact: Medium (for companies not investing in information security).
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Uncertainty in the regulatory environment for crypto assets — the law on crypto assets has not yet taken effect; T-Bank and Ozon plan to integrate crypto services, but timelines and requirements are unclear; the cost range for creating a crypto depository is from 500 million to 10 billion rubles. Probability: Medium. Impact: Medium.
Outlook
Key events and indicators to monitor in the coming week:
- Publication of the results of the Ministry of Digital Development's cloud software selection (list of vendors with government support).
- Entry into force of new fines for authorization on July 7 — market reaction and potential waves of lawsuits.
- Gartner recommendations on the implementation of agentic AI — the start of public discussions among Russian vendors.
Positioning: Increase the weight of companies operating in the secure infrastructure segments (UserGate, ICL) and platforms for the public sector; reduce shares in operators of traditional corporate software without an AI component.