Energy Sector Weekly: Regulatory-Driven Transition Coexists with Structural Opportunities, Focus on Policy Beneficiaries and Integration Leaders

Period: 2026-01-19 — 2026-01-25 | Sources analyzed: 42 | Avg. relevance: 8.3/10

Bottom Line

This week saw intertwined policy and market signals in China's energy sector. Portfolios should tilt towards areas with clear policy support and high earnings visibility, while preparing for a potential revaluation of the transition value of traditional energy giants. Immediately increase holdings in leading companies in the energy storage industry chain, high-quality coal enterprises benefiting from total coal consumption control, and large-scale integrated petrochemical projects; maintain a highly selective stance on the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, focusing only on absolute leaders in cost and technology; closely monitor strategic integration moves by large state-owned energy groups.

Key Developments

1. National Energy Administration Issues New Regulations on Total Coal Consumption Control — Explicitly requires key regions to control annual coal consumption growth within 2% by 2026, aiming to promote clean and efficient coal utilization. Portfolio implication: While setting a total consumption cap, this policy actually provides clear market share and protection for efficient, clean coal power and coal chemical projects. Beneficial for large state-owned coal enterprises with advanced technology and leading environmental indicators (e.g., China Shenhua, China Coal Energy), as the value of their existing high-quality capacity will become more prominent. Increase holdings in such "clean coal" assets and avoid small-to-medium-sized, technologically backward coal enterprises.

2. Cumulative Installed Capacity of New Energy Storage Exceeds 144.7 GW, 2030 Target Surpasses 370 GW — Installed capacity surged 85% year-on-year in 2025, with clear planning targets indicating the industry has entered a phase of large-scale deployment. Portfolio implication: This not only confirms growth potential but also endorses the maturing of business models (e.g., independent energy storage, grid-side dispatch). Investment should concentrate on upstream core equipment (inverters, battery packs) and downstream leading integrators/operators. Focus on listed companies with core technology and proven large-scale delivery capabilities, whose valuations will command a premium for certainty of growth.

3. China Coal Energy Releases 2025 Performance Flash Report, Net Profit Up 25% Year-on-Year — Against a backdrop of declining average coal prices, the company achieved counter-trend profit growth through scale, cost advantages, and industrial chain extension, and proposed a high dividend plan. Portfolio implication: This validates the ability of leading companies to achieve "compensating volume with price" or even "rising volume and price" through competitive advantages amid industry-wide total control. High dividends further strengthen their defensive nature and shareholder return value. Such traditional energy companies with strong cash flow and clear dividend commitments should be viewed as ballast in a "value + growth" portfolio, with increased allocation.

4. CNOOC Announces Over 500 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent in Newly Proven Reserves in Bohai Oilfield — A major breakthrough in domestic offshore exploration, solidifying the resource base for increasing domestic oil and gas production. Portfolio implication: This discovery directly enhances CNOOC's reserve life and long-term production ceiling, reducing external dependency risks, representing a substantive positive under the national energy security strategy. The company is expected to accelerate development in the region, boosting demand for upstream exploration & production and offshore engineering services. Recommend overweighting CNOOC and monitoring leading oilfield service companies strongly correlated with its capital expenditure.

5. China's Cumulative Wind Power Export Capacity Exceeds 28 GW, 2026 New Installation Expectations Reach 120 GW — Overseas markets have become a key growth driver, while domestic demand remains strong driven by large-scale base projects. Portfolio implication: Turbine manufacturers with global presence and brand premium (e.g., Goldwind, Envision Energy) and core component suppliers (e.g., blades, bearings) will benefit doubly from robust domestic prospects and overseas market breakthroughs. Prioritize allocation to leading wind power industry chain companies with consistently rising overseas revenue share and competitive technology/cost advantages, enjoying higher growth certainty.

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Potential EU Restrictions on PV Inverters via 'High-Risk Supplier' List — The EU plans to exclude Chinese PV inverters from critical infrastructure based on its Cybersecurity Act. If implemented, this would severely impact the export business of Chinese leaders like Huawei and Sungrow Power Supply, which hold over half of the global market share.

  • Probability: Medium (Policy advancement involves room for negotiation)
  • Impact: High (Direct impact on overseas revenue and valuation)

• Deepening Overcapacity and Profitability Crisis in PV Manufacturing — Despite cumulative installed capacity exceeding 1,000 GW, upstream manufacturing is mired in severe price wars and widespread losses (e.g., LONGi Green Energy Technology expects a loss in 2025). Industry consolidation may trigger supply chain credit risks and a wave of asset impairments.

  • Probability: High (Industry consolidation is underway)
  • Impact: High (Affects the entire industry chain and related financial assets)

Outlook

Key events and indicators to monitor next week:

• Disclosure of detailed investment plan and timeline for Sinopec's Zhanjiang Integrated Project: Observe its capital expenditure structure to gauge its focus on high-end chemical materials.
• Potential release of the 2026 Q1 wind and solar construction quota allocation plan by the National Energy Administration: Assess provincial construction pace, directly impacting equipment order fulfillment.
• 2025 financial report previews and 2026 production guidance from major coal companies (e.g., China Shenhua): Verify actual operational strategy adjustments under the total control policy.

Positioning consideration: Currently, construct a "barbell" allocation: one end consists of high-dividend, stable-cash-flow traditional energy leaders benefiting from policy (coal, oil & gas); the other end consists of high-growth, strongly policy-driven core segments of the new power system (energy storage, offshore wind, smart grid); maintain underweight exposure to the middle segment of PV manufacturing, treating it only as a window for observing technological iteration.