China Mining Sector Weekly Report (2026-02-09 to 02-15): Dual Drivers of Expansion and Intelligent Transformation, Focusing on Leaders and Transition Targets

Bottom Line

The core drivers for China's mining sector this week are the global expansion of leading companies and the accelerated digital/intelligent transformation across the industry. Investors should overweight industry leaders that possess both clear capacity expansion pathways (especially in gold and lithium) and leading capabilities in intelligence/ESG, while closely monitoring the demand for mining technology and equipment spurred by new safety regulations. Simultaneously, caution is warranted against execution and integration risks that may arise during aggressive M&A and capacity ramp-up processes.

Key Developments

1. Zijin Mining Announces Aggressive Expansion Plan, Aims for Global Top Three — The company released its 2026-2028 development plan, targeting to increase its mined gold production to 130-140 tons and mined copper production to 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028. It plans to acquire Canada's Allied Gold for approximately RMB 28 billion to support this growth, aiming to rank among the world's top three gold and copper producers. Portfolio implication: Overweight Zijin Mining. Its clear production guidance and M&A execution make it the preferred choice for investing in China's mining growth. Also, monitor large-scale mining equipment and service providers in its supply chain, which will benefit from increased capital expenditure.

2. Lithium Resource Consolidation Intensifies; Shengxin/Shengtun Lithium Gains Full Control of Sichuan Murong Mine — Through a total investment of approximately RMB 7.4 billion, Shengxin Lithium (also referred to as Shengtun Lithium in reports) has obtained full ownership and control of the Sichuan Murong lithium mine, one of Asia's largest single hard-rock lithium deposits. This move aims to reverse losses. Portfolio implication: This highlights the intensifying competition among Chinese lithium companies for upstream core resources, benefiting lithium mining firms with definitive resource reserves. However, the impact of massive capital expenditure on future cash flow and resilience during lithium price cycles must be assessed. Prioritize consolidators with superior resource endowments and strong cost-control capabilities.

3. Two State-Owned Giants, Minmetals and Chinalco, Jointly Invest in Mining Digital Transformation — China Minmetals Corporation and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) signed a strategic agreement to jointly invest RMB 500 million in developing an automated and intelligent mining technology platform. This marks a collaborative upgrade by state-owned giants in cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and safety production. Portfolio implication: The joint investment by state-owned mining giants provides strong demand endorsement and a demonstration effect for the Mining Tech sector. Focus on listed companies and unicorns providing intelligent solutions, remote operation systems, and digital twin technologies for large mining enterprises.

4. Ministry of Natural Resources Issues New Regulations Mandating Digital Upgrades for Mining Safety — On February 14, 2026, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "Regulations on Digital Management of Mine Safety Production," requiring all mining enterprises to complete digital upgrades of their safety monitoring systems by 2026, primarily covering exploration and extraction phases. Portfolio implication: This is a clear regulatory-driven investment theme. The new regulations will create mandatory, time-bound capital expenditure demand, directly benefiting providers of mine safety monitoring, smart sensing, data transmission, and data analytics solutions. Consider a systematic allocation to this sub-sector.

5. China Uranium Goes Abroad for Critical Resources, Increases Stake in Namibia's Etango Uranium Project — The board of China Uranium Co., Ltd. approved its wholly-owned subsidiary CNNC Overseas to increase its stake in Namibia's Etango uranium project by 45%, aiming to secure strategic resource supply. Portfolio implication: This transaction reflects China's ongoing overseas deployment for critical energy minerals. Although there are few A-share uranium sector targets, this move reinforces the investment logic of "strategic resource security." Extend attention to similar actions by other Chinese resource companies with successful overseas operational experience.

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Policy Compliance and Cost Overrun Risks — While the new digital safety regulations create demand, they also set a clear compliance deadline (2026) and potential capital expenditure pressure for all mining enterprises (especially small and medium-sized ones). If technology upgrade costs exceed expectations or implementation lags, profits could be eroded, potentially triggering regulatory penalties. Probability: Medium. Impact: Medium.

• Management and Integration Risks Under Aggressive Expansion — Leading companies like Zijin Mining are embarking on large-scale global M&A and capacity ramp-ups following founder succession, while pursuing multi-metal production targets. Uncertainties exist in post-cross-border M&A operational integration, cultural assimilation, and on-schedule project commissioning and capacity attainment, which could impact financial forecasts. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.

Outlook

Key events and indicators to monitor next week:

• Follow-up developments and disclosure of transaction details regarding Zijin Mining's acquisition of Canada's Allied Gold.
• The bidding results for the intelligent transformation project (remote operation automation upgrade) at the Tonglüshan Mine under China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group's subsidiary Zhongse Daye, which can serve as a leading indicator for mining technology orders.
• China's excavator sales data for February 2026 (whether it continues the high growth trend from January), serving as indirect evidence of domestic mining and upstream capital expenditure vitality.

Positioning consideration: Tactically, it is recommended to construct a barbell portfolio of "Leading Resource Producers (Growth Certainty) + Core Technology Suppliers (Policy Beneficiaries)" to capture returns from the industry's dual-theme development.