Mining Sector Weekly: Three Key Themes in Sync – Accelerating Domestic M&A, Overseas Policy Disruptions, and Deepening Technological Iteration

Bottom Line

This week, the core drivers for the mining sector are clear, with policy, capital, and events resonating. Investors should immediately adjust their positioning from three dimensions: first, increase allocation to leading companies actively executing mergers and acquisitions, especially those involving critical metals like lithium (e.g., Zijin Mining, specific lithium companies); second, exercise high vigilance and avoid downstream companies overly reliant on single-source lithium raw material supplies from Zimbabwe; third, focus on definitive investment opportunities in mining digitalization and green transformation, particularly the technology cooperation projects of central state-owned enterprises like Zijin, Chinalco, and Minmetals.

Key Developments

1. Zimbabwe Suspends Lithium Ore Exports, Global Lithium Supply Faces Short-Term Shock — On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates. The country exported approximately 1.18 million tonnes of lithium concentrate to China in 2025, accounting for about 18% of China's imports, directly impacting the global lithium resource supply chain. Portfolio Implication: Directly beneficial for listed companies with domestic lithium resources or diversified overseas supply channels (e.g., market-watched concept stocks like Tianqi Lithium), potentially leading to short-term valuation uplifts. Meanwhile, processing enterprises heavily reliant on Zimbabwean raw materials will face rising costs and supply chain risks, requiring prudent assessment and consideration for position reduction. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices (futures once surged over 11%) can be closely tracked as a leading indicator.

2. Zijin Mining Releases Three-Year Plan and Deepens Tech Cooperation, Clarifying Growth Path — Zijin Mining released its 2026-2028 plan on February 24, targeting mineral gold production of 105 tonnes in 2026, increasing to 130-140 tonnes by 2028. On the same day, it signed an agreement with the Chinese Academy of Sciences to invest 50 billion yuan in jointly building a digital platform for mineral exploration. Furthermore, its overseas operations center relocated to Sanya, Hainan, aiming to strengthen overseas project operations and gold deep processing. Portfolio Implication: The company consolidates its industry leadership and growth certainty through clear production guidance and proactive digital transformation. Investors should consider it a core holding and focus on the long-term cost advantages and exploration efficiency gains from its technology investments. The establishment of the Hainan center further confirms the deepening of its internationalization strategy, benefiting the valuation of overseas projects.

3. Gansu Mining Rights Auction Sets Record, Highlighting Resource Heat and Capital Inflow — On January 20, 2026, the Gansu Provincial Department of Natural Resources successfully auctioned two mining rights for a total transaction value of 64.07 billion yuan (approximately $9.27 billion), with Jinchuan Group Copper & Precious Metals Company securing the main lot for 63.87 billion yuan. Portfolio Implication: This transaction indicates an accelerated revaluation process for domestic premium mineral resources (especially copper, etc.), with the market paying high premiums for quality resources. It is advisable to focus on listed companies with similar high-grade, large-scale resource reserves, as their resource value may be benchmarked and revalued in subsequent transactions. Simultaneously, it marks a strong start for the mining rights market at the beginning of the year, potentially boosting sentiment in the upstream exploration and resource sectors.

4. NDRC Establishes 100-Billion-Yuan Special Fund to Promote Mining Green Transformation — On February 25, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Green Transformation of the Mining Industry," announcing the allocation of 100 billion yuan (approximately $14.5 billion) from the central budget as a special fund to support industry green retrofitting. Portfolio Implication: This is a clear policy tailwind, providing direct financial support for environmental technology upgrades in mining. It preferentially benefits leading companies in mine environmental technology, energy-saving equipment, and those with advanced green mining practices (e.g., smart mines, like China Coal Group cooperating with Huawei). Investment valuation should incorporate companies' ESG practices and green technology application capabilities.

5. Active M&A and Restructuring in A-shares, Mining Consolidation Underway — Since the beginning of 2026, over 500 M&A and restructuring deals have occurred in the A-share market, involving a scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with significant consolidation cases emerging in the mining sector (e.g., a Zijin Mining subsidiary plans to fully acquire a certain company). Additionally, reports indicate that in response to external pressures, three state-owned mining giants—China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Minmetals, and China Rare Earth—simultaneously initiated asset restructuring and integration from late 2025 to early 2026. Portfolio Implication: Increasing industry concentration is an inevitable trend, with themes of SOE reform and industry chain integration heating up. Investors should focus on screening medium-sized mining companies that may become industry consolidation platforms or have acquisition potential. At the same time, attention should be paid to the efficiency improvements and synergies resulting from the restructuring of large central SOEs (e.g., Minmetals and Chinalco signed a strategic cooperation to jointly develop mine automation).

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Risk of Sudden Policy Changes in Overseas Resource Countries — Export ban incidents similar to Zimbabwe's could recur in other key mineral-producing countries (e.g., in Africa, Latin America), aimed at promoting domestic industry chain extension, which would directly impact Chinese processing enterprises heavily reliant on imported primary raw materials from overseas. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.

• Post-Large-Scale M&A Integration and Goodwill Risk — The current heated M&A wave may inflate asset valuations. If subsequent commodity price fluctuations occur or integration falls short of expectations, it could lead to unmet performance commitments, goodwill impairment, and other issues, especially in cross-sector M&A cases. Probability: Low. Impact: High.

Outlook

Key Events and Indicators to Monitor Next Week:

• Monitor the subsequent stock price performance and market trading volume changes of companies like Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources that release announcements on M&A or cooperation progress.
• Closely track the spot and futures price trends of battery-grade lithium carbonate to assess the actual support strength and sustainability of the Zimbabwe ban on lithium prices.
• Watch for whether other provinces follow up with specific implementation rules or project lists for mining green transformation, as well as the application and deployment dynamics of related special funds.

Tactical Positioning Considerations: Given strong policy support, accelerating industry consolidation, and clear technological upgrades, it is recommended to moderately overweight the mining sector in investment portfolios, focusing on diversified leading companies with "domestic resource integration + technological leadership + stable overseas supply chains."