A Trillion Rubles for Technological Sovereignty: The State Sets a New Vector for Investment in Microelectronics

Period: 2026-01-19 — 2026-01-25 | Sources analyzed: 22 | Avg. relevance: 8.6/10

Bottom Line

The week was defined by unprecedented state intervention in microelectronics. Investors should immediately review their portfolios in favor of companies that will become beneficiaries of state investments and the import substitution mandate, primarily in the hardware, industrial, and military electronics sectors. Simultaneously, it is necessary to reduce exposure to consumer electronics retail, which is facing structural contraction.

Key Developments

1. Establishment of the "United Microelectronics Company" (OMK) with a budget of 1 trillion rubles — The President and the government authorized the creation of a full-cycle megacorporation for semiconductor production. Funding until 2030 will amount to 750 billion rubles from the budget and 250 billion rubles from Sberbank. Portfolio implication: Expect an increase in market capitalization and order growth for existing specialized assets that will enter OMK's orbit (e.g., Mikron, Angstrem). Investments in companies supplying specialized equipment, materials, and software for microelectronics are becoming strategically attractive.

2. Sberbank acquires control over "Element" for 27 billion rubles — The country's largest bank has moved beyond the role of a financial intermediary, becoming the direct owner of a leading microelectronics manufacturer, indicating a strategic consolidation of assets under the auspices of state financial institutions. Portfolio implication: Consolidation in Sber's hands makes it a key public investment instrument for playing the microelectronics theme. Consider increasing the share of Sber in the portfolio as a proxy asset for the entire industry.

3. Direct mandate from Vladimir Putin to equip the Russian Armed Forces with "smart" equipment based on domestic components — The President stated the need for technological sovereignty for the army and civilian sector, instructing the creation of an interdepartmental commission led by Manturov and Fursenko. Portfolio implication: The investment attractiveness of defense industry companies and "civilian" enterprises capable of fulfilling state defense orders in electronics is sharply increasing. Strengthen analysis of supplier companies for Rostec, Roscosmos, and other state corporations.

4. Mass closure of electronics stores amid falling sales — Major retailers (M.Video-Eldorado, Citilink) are reducing their offline networks due to declining demand, highlighting the crisis in the consumer segment. Portfolio implication: Accelerate diversification away from shares of public electronics retailers. Focus on their online divisions and logistics as the main drivers if exposure is necessary.

5. Global shortage and price increase for RAM (up to 20% in 2026) — A global supply crisis, driven by demand from the AI industry, will directly impact production costs in Russia and consumer prices. Portfolio implication: Consider short-term trading opportunities in the electronic components distribution segment, but be prepared for margin pressure on end-equipment manufacturers. Monitor the inventories of key distributors.

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Implementation risk of the OMK megaproject — High complexity, tight deadlines, and dependence on inaccessible Western technologies could lead to schedule disruptions and cost overruns, undermining market confidence.

  • Probability: Medium
  • Impact: High

• Accelerated consumer inflation in the electronics segment — The combined impact of the global component shortage, ruble depreciation, and rising logistics costs could sharply reduce solvent demand and retail profitability.

  • Probability: High
  • Impact: Medium

• Regulatory risk for IT services — Despite the current position of the Central Bank, the likelihood of tighter regulation of online activities (including corporate meetings) remains against the backdrop of the general paradigm of "digital sovereignty" and cyber threats.

  • Probability: Low-Medium
  • Impact: Medium

Outlook

Key events and indicators to monitor next week:

• Official publication of the decree/resolution on the establishment of OMK with details on its structure and first beneficiaries.
• Financial reports of key electronics retailers for Q4 2025 to assess the depth of the decline.
• Statements from Sber's management on the development strategy for "Element" and its integration into the ecosystem.

Positioning consideration: In the short term, form a tactical "sovereignty package" focused on shares of Sber, state corporations in defense/electronics and their satellites, while hedging risks by reducing the share of consumer-oriented IT assets.