Russia, February 2026: Nuclear Uncertainty and Sanctions Adaptation as New Factors of Investment Risk

Bottom Line

The expiration of the New START Treaty on February 5, 2026, against the backdrop of stalled negotiations on Ukraine, has sharply increased the level of strategic instability, outweighing positive signals from individual economic deals. Investors with exposure to Russia should prepare for a long-term increase in the geopolitical risk premium, tightening secondary sanctions, and prioritize monitoring supply chains in the energy and raw materials sectors.

Key Developments

1. Expiration of the New START Treaty without replacement — The Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty between Russia and the United States expired on February 5, 2026. The absence of a new agreement or extension of the old one eliminates a key element of predictability in the nuclear sphere. Investment Relevance: Creates a fundamental, non-diversifiable risk for all long-term investments in Russia. Increases the likelihood of further militarization of foreign policy, capital isolation, and tightening of control regimes for dual-use technologies critical for IT and mining.
2. Round of Ukraine negotiations in Abu Dhabi yields no breakthrough — Trilateral consultations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine did not lead to significant progress, keeping the conflict in a "frozen" state. Simultaneously, NATO Secretary General Rutte stated the alliance's readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine following any peace agreement. Investment Relevance: Confirms the permanent nature of the conflict as a systemic risk. Any escalation (including potential NATO force deployment) will immediately trigger a new round of punitive sanctions, primarily impacting the financial and technology sectors.
3. EU reduces share of Russian gas in imports from 45% to 12% — The European Union has carried out a radical reorientation towards LNG, primarily from the United States. This is a structural, not a cyclical, change in energy trade. Investment Relevance: Solidifies the loss of a key market for Russian gas exports. Forces Gazprom and independent producers to accelerate the pivot to the East and develop LNG projects, which requires colossal capital investments and faces logistical and technological constraints due to sanctions.
4. Rosneft secures $10 billion from Aramco for Arctic fields — The deal with the Saudi giant is aimed at the joint development of new Arctic projects, demonstrating the ability to attract large-scale investments despite Western restrictions. Investment Relevance: A positive signal for the energy sector, showing the possibility of capital infusion through partners from "non-hostile" jurisdictions. However, Arctic projects remain high-risk due to technological complexity, equipment sanctions, and high costs.
5. Bill granting FSB the right to shut down internet and communications passes first reading — The initiative legalizes and strengthens the state's direct control over communication networks for "security purposes." Investment Relevance: A negative signal for the IT sector and any business dependent on digital infrastructure. Increases operational risks (sudden downtime), complicates compliance for international companies, and undermines trust in data protection.

Sector Implications

Details:

• IT: The bill on FSB powers sets a precedent for arbitrary restriction of digital communications, increasing risks for cloud services, e-commerce, and remote work. This may accelerate the outflow of specialists and complicate cooperation with foreign partners.
• Mining: The Ministry of Finance's decision to ease export restrictions for aluminum and steel to BRICS countries will directly support metallurgists' revenue. However, dependence on imports of high-tech equipment for extraction and processing maintains the sector's vulnerability to sanctions.
• Energy: The sector is at a bifurcation point. On one hand — successful attraction of investments (Aramco, LNG negotiations with Turkey) and plans for naval convoying of tankers to reduce logistical risks. On the other — the irreversible loss of the European gas market and growing freight and insurance costs in key export directions (Baltic).

Geopolitical Pulse

Risk Watch

• Risk of a new arms race and security crisis — The expiration of New START without replacement could provoke an uncontrolled arms buildup and increase the likelihood of incidents. A potential trigger — deployment of new weapon systems near Russian or US borders. Timeline: Medium-term. Probability: Medium.
• Conflict escalation with direct NATO involvement — Rutte's statement on readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine after a peace agreement radically lowers the threshold for direct confrontation. A trigger could be Kyiv's attempt to forcibly retake territories with alliance guarantees. Timeline: Medium-term. Probability: Low-Medium.
• Mass confiscation of frozen Russian sovereign assets — Calls from Oslo to accelerate this process before elections in key Western countries indicate growing political will. Implementation would undermine trust in the Western financial system but trigger immediate retaliatory measures from Moscow against foreign business. Timeline: Near-term. Probability: High.

Outlook

Key dates and events to monitor:

• Market reaction to the expiration of New START (after February 5, 2026): Monitoring statements from nuclear powers and changes in military doctrines.
• Subsequent rounds of Ukraine negotiations: Any public meetings at the level of foreign ministers or security advisors.
• BRICS Summit (scheduled for 2026): Possible new settlement mechanisms and investment initiatives aimed at further moving away from the dollar and Western financial systems.

Strategic consideration: Russia's investment attractiveness in the coming years will be determined not by macroeconomic indicators, but by the business community's ability to adapt to a permanent sanctions war and accelerated reorientation towards alternative markets and logistical corridors.