China Energy Weekly: Policy Drives Green Power Reform and AI+Energy Storage Surge, Photovoltaic Industry Paradigm Shift Imminent

Bottom Line

This week's core signals in the energy sector are the strong policy push for direct green power connections and AI+energy storage, coupled with deep adjustments in the photovoltaic industry and an explosion in wind power exports. It is recommended that investors focus on leading enterprises with system integration capabilities and overseas market expansion, while remaining vigilant about valuation risks from sustained losses in the crystalline silicon supply chain.

Key Developments

1. National Energy Administration Releases First 51 AI+Energy Scenarios, 'AI+Energy Storage' Identified as Industry's Biggest Opportunity — On June 2, 2026, the National Energy Administration held a national on-site promotion conference in Shenzhen, officially releasing the first batch of 51 high-value "Artificial Intelligence+" energy scenarios and launching pilot project applications. Concurrently, the China AI+Energy Development Report 2026 was released. Portfolio implication: The energy storage sector will directly benefit from efficiency improvements and demand catalysts driven by AI empowerment. It is recommended to overweight companies with energy storage system integration capabilities and AI algorithm platforms, especially those already included in the pilot list.

2. Premier Li Qiang Emphasizes Implementing New Energy Security Strategy, Promoting Energy Structure Optimization and Institutional Reform — On June 3, 2026, during the 19th special study session of the State Council, Premier Li Qiang pointed out the need to accelerate energy system and mechanism reforms to provide energy security for high-quality development. Portfolio implication: The policy signal reinforces the development path prioritizing renewable energy, benefiting wind power, photovoltaic operators, and distributed energy assets, particularly relevant targets in provinces with well-established green electricity trading mechanisms (e.g., Jiangsu).

3. Photovoltaic Industry Shifts from Scale Competition to System Capability Building, Leading Companies' Sustained Losses Trigger Executive Absence Wave — At the SNEC 2026 conference on June 2-3, executives from leading companies such as Tongwei, Zhonghuan, and Jinko were absent. Zhu Gongshan pointed out that the old paradigm has completely failed, and the competitive focus has shifted to high-value adjustable energy supply. Portfolio implication: Avoid the pure module manufacturing segment. Focus on companies successfully transitioning to system solutions (e.g., energy storage + photovoltaic, intelligent operations). Accelerated industry consolidation warrants caution regarding downside risks for overcapacity stocks.

4. China's Wind Power Exports Surge, Overseas Installations in 2025 Up 215% Year-on-Year to 8.9GW — According to BNEF data, Envision Energy's overseas installations surged 15-fold to 4.8GW, with orders continuing to grow in 2026. Chinese wind turbines are breaking Western monopolies. Portfolio implication: Leading wind power exporters (e.g., Envision Energy, Goldwind Technology) will benefit from the global energy transition dividend. It is recommended to increase holdings in companies that have secured long-term overseas orders and possess comprehensive after-sales networks.

5. Direct Green Power Connection Policy Drives Large-Scale Development, April Green Certificate Issuance Hits Record 237 Million — Data from the National Energy Administration on May 30, 2026, shows that 237 million green certificates were issued nationwide in April, with tradable green certificates accounting for 74.85%. The policy clarifies that green certificates and green electricity trading will be directly used to account for renewable energy power consumption. Portfolio implication: The surge in green certificate trading volume benefits power generation companies with substantial green electricity, especially photovoltaic and wind power operators. It is recommended to focus on companies holding high-quality green certificate assets and participating in market-based trading.

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Risk of Sustained Losses in Photovoltaic Industry — The absence of executives from leading companies and Zhu Gongshan's statement that the old paradigm has failed indicate the industry is still in a deep adjustment phase. If the price war continues or downstream demand falls short of expectations, it could trigger more company losses or even bankruptcies. Probability: High. Impact: High.
• Geopolitical Risk (Strait of Hormuz) — China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for approximately 33% of its oil imports and 22% of total consumption. If conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalates, leading to shipping disruptions, it would impact energy security and the costs of related chemical companies. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
• Risk of AI+Energy Storage Pilot Implementation Falling Short of Expectations — Although the first 51 scenarios have been released, challenges related to technological maturity, return on investment, and grid coordination may delay commercialization, leading to a cooling of speculative fervor. Probability: Medium. Impact: Medium.

Outlook

Key events and indicators to monitor next week:

• SNEC 2026 follow-up forums and exhibitor contract signings (especially orders for energy storage and AI solutions).
• May data from the National Energy Administration on green certificate issuance and renewable energy power generation.
• Anti-dumping or tariff changes for Chinese wind power components in overseas markets (BNEF data has already attracted Western attention).

Positioning consideration: It is recommended to moderately increase allocation to the energy storage and wind power export sectors while reducing exposure to traditional crystalline silicon photovoltaic manufacturers. Use policy catalysts to selectively accumulate positions in integrated energy service providers during market dips.