Blueprint for the 15th Five-Year Energy New System Released: Focusing on Renewable Energy and Non-Electric Consumption, Energy Storage and Nuclear Power Face Structural Opportunities

Bottom Line

This week, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly released the "15th Five-Year Energy New System Plan," clearly aiming to initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system by 2030. For the first time, non-electric consumption has been included in the renewable energy consumption assessment, sending a very strong policy signal. Coupled with the explosion of overseas orders for energy storage, accelerated nuclear power installation, and total energy investment exceeding 20 trillion yuan, investors are advised to increase allocations to energy storage, nuclear power, and green hydrogen/green ammonia related targets, and to pay attention to the incremental opportunities brought by the implementation of non-electric consumption policies.

Key Developments

1. 15th Five-Year Energy New System Plan Released, 2030 Goals Clear — On June 25, the NDRC and NEA jointly released the plan, proposing to initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system by 2030; on June 26, the State Council Information Office held a briefing, where NEA Director Wang Hongzhi disclosed that total investment in key energy projects and new business forms during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will exceed 20 trillion yuan (approximately 2.9 trillion US dollars). Portfolio implication: Clarifies medium- to long-term policy direction, benefiting the entire new energy industry chain. Focus on allocating to wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, and nuclear power leaders, especially companies with project reserves for the 15th Five-Year Plan.

2. Non-Electric Consumption Included in Renewable Energy Minimum Consumption Weight Assessment for the First Time — From June 22 to 24, four departments including the NDRC and NEA jointly released the "Implementation Measures for Renewable Energy Minimum Consumption Weight and Consumption Responsibility Weight," including non-electric consumption such as industrial heat, hydrogen, green ammonia, and methanol in the assessment and evaluation scope for the first time. Portfolio implication: Directly benefits the green hydrogen, green ammonia, green methanol, and biofuel industry chains. It is recommended to focus on companies with green ammonia/methanol production capacity plans and technology suppliers related to industrial heat retrofitting.

3. Global Orders for Chinese Energy Storage Companies Surge, Exceeding 25 GWh — According to a June 21 report by the South China Morning Post, Chinese energy storage companies have recently received overseas orders (mainly from the US and Europe) with a total capacity exceeding 25 GWh. Seven of the top ten companies are Chinese. Portfolio implication: The energy storage export track continues to be highly prosperous. Focus on leading energy storage system integrators and cell suppliers, but be wary of overseas trade barriers and geopolitical risks.

4. Nuclear Power Construction Accelerates, Expected to Rank First in Installed Capacity Globally by 2030 — According to the "China Nuclear Energy Development Blue Book (2026)," China is expected to rank first globally in nuclear power installed capacity by 2030; currently, 18 A-share nuclear power concept stocks have a rolling P/E ratio below 40 times. CGN Power's 2025 annual report on the Hong Kong stock exchange shows that the number of commercial nuclear power units nationwide has reached 59. Portfolio implication: The nuclear power sector is undervalued, coupled with expectations of policy acceleration. It is recommended to allocate to leading nuclear power operators and niche areas such as spent fuel treatment and nuclear-grade equipment.

5. Coal-Fired Ultra-Supercritical Units Still Being Commissioned, but Pressure on New Energy Consumption Emerges — China Energy Engineering Corporation announced that Phase IV of the Huainan Pingwei Power Plant, with 2×1000 MW ultra-supercritical coal-fired units, was commissioned on June 22; meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2026, China added 58.93 GW of new renewable energy installed capacity, accounting for 70% of all new installations, making consumption challenges a focal point for the industry. Portfolio implication: In the short term, coal power still bears the functions of base load and peak shaving. Pay attention to the demand for flexibility retrofitting and energy storage peak shaving; excessively fast new energy installation may lead to an increase in the curtailment rate of wind and solar power, benefiting virtual power plants and smart energy management platforms.

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Renewable Energy Consumption Bottleneck Intensifies — New installations in Q1 increased significantly year-on-year, but grid infrastructure and peak-shaving resources may lag, leading to an increase in the curtailment rate of wind and solar power. Probability: High. Impact: Medium. If the consumption rate deteriorates, it will suppress the returns of new projects.

• Can Geopolitical Uncertainties Persist? — The report mentions "the strait reopens but risks remain," which may refer to the Taiwan Strait situation or international trade frictions. If tensions escalate, it will affect energy equipment exports and supply chain stability. Probability: Medium. Impact: High. Need to closely monitor changes in energy trade policies after the US election.

• Nuclear Fusion Commercialization Timeline Exceeds Expectations — Although CNNC announced that key ITER components have entered integrated testing and domestic "HL-3" has achieved breakthroughs, commercialization is still far off; if the market prices this in too early, it may face expectation gap risks. Probability: Low. Impact: Low in near term. Long-term investors need not overreact.

Outlook

Key events and indicators to monitor next week:

• Specific implementation details of the 15th Five-Year Energy New System Plan by local governments and provincial renewable energy consumption weight allocation plans
• June data on China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations and changes in curtailment rates
• Progress on overseas order fulfillment for energy storage companies and price fluctuations of raw materials (lithium carbonate)

Positioning consideration: It is recommended to overweight energy storage, nuclear power, and green hydrogen/green ammonia sectors, appropriately reduce holdings of pure coal power assets, and pay attention to the investment theme of grid flexibility and digitalization.