Geopolitical Turbulence Creates Windows of Opportunity, Operational Resilience of Nuclear Sector Confirmed

Period: 2026-01-19 — 2026-01-25 | Sources analyzed: 14 | Avg. relevance: 7.4/10

Bottom Line

Against the backdrop of geopolitical negotiations on an "energy truce" and a potential softening of European resistance to Russian gas, investors should consider a tactical increase in exposure to segments with high operational efficiency and geopolitical hedging. Key targets for capital reallocation are companies in the nuclear sector (Rosatom) and manufacturers of electrical equipment for the domestic market and CIS, which demonstrate resilient operational performance and benefit from state support.

Key Developments

1. Rosatom Demonstrates Record Efficiency: Nuclear Plant Capacity Factor Reaches 87% — The state corporation exceeded the state plan by 102% in 2025; key operational metrics, including electricity generation and the capacity factor (87%), confirm the resilience of the business model under sanctions. Portfolio implication: Assets related to nuclear generation (including suppliers for Rosatom) represent a defensive portfolio component with predictable cash flows. An overweight position is recommended compared to more volatile oil & gas sectors exposed to logistical and price risks.

2. US-EU Conflict Over Greenland Could Alter Europe's Trajectory Away from Russian Gas — Experts indicate that an escalation of trade disagreements between the US and the EU may force Brussels to reconsider the timeline and completeness of its abandonment of Russian energy resources to ensure energy security. Portfolio implication: The likelihood of a longer and smoother period of maintaining (or even increasing) gas export flows is rising. This is a positive signal for liquid gas companies with flexible logistics (NOVATEK, Gazprom). Positions should be increased during corrections caused by short-term negative news flow.

3. A Temporary "Energy Truce" Between Russia and Ukraine, Mediated by the US, is Under Discussion — Negotiations in Abu Dhabi may propose a deal: cessation of strikes on Ukraine's energy system in exchange for a halt to attacks on Russian refineries and tankers. Portfolio implication: If negotiations succeed, operational risks for the oil refining sector and "shadow fleet" logistics will decrease, potentially leading to a short-term rally in oil company stocks. However, this is a temporary factor; the strategic reorientation of flows to the East will remain unchanged. Tactical trading around the news flow is recommended.

4. Ukrainian Energy System Crisis Exposes Repair Capacity Deficit and Boosts Demand for Equipment from CIS — Ukraine is facing its most severe energy crisis since 2022, and supply channels for old Soviet-era equipment from Eastern Europe are exhausted. Portfolio implication: Russian manufacturers of electrical equipment (such as "SKAT" and "PROMENERGO," visited by ministers) gain an indirect competitive advantage in CIS markets and other friendly countries experiencing shortages of similar components. Investments in the themes of "energy sovereignty" and import substitution in the fuel and energy complex remain strategically prioritized.

Sector Pulse

Risk Watch

• Collapse of the Energy Truce — Failure of the Abu Dhabi negotiations or their breakdown by one of the parties will lead to a resumption of attacks on energy assets, increasing the risk premium for oil refiners and shipping operators.
  • Probability: Medium
  • Impact: High (for specific subsectors)
• Extreme Weather Conditions — Incidents like the collapse of a power line in the Murmansk region due to abnormal cold highlight systemic risks to infrastructure and potential costs for grid modernization.
  • Probability: High (seasonal factor)
  • Impact: Medium (localized, but increasing on a national scale)

Outlook

Key events and indicators to monitor next week:

• Official outcomes and statements following the trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi (January 23-24) on the "energy truce."
• Data on current nuclear power plant electricity generation and repair campaign plans for February (following the shutdown of unit No. 3 at the Smolensk NPP).
• Any statements by key European politicians concerning energy policy and relations with the US that could confirm or refute the thesis of a softening stance on Russian gas.

Positioning consideration: Maintain a tactical overexposure to the nuclear sector and manufacturers of critical equipment for power grids, using any market weakness caused by geopolitical noise to build up positions.